Congressional Races

My reading of the tea leaves is that the Democrats will net 4 seats in the U.S. Senate, leaving the Republicans in control; and the Democrats will net 20 seats in the U.S. House, putting the Democrats in control. Speaker Pelosi!

This will be historic if this happens, because never before has the House switched parties when the Senate did not. Apparently, a net change of 4 and 20 seats, respectively, in the 6th year of a president's term, is below average on both counts. That is, greater changes in both halves of Congress are typical in the 6th year.

While I am at it, I predict that Democrats will be challenging election results all across the country if fewer seats change hands than I have predicted here, since the Democrats thoroughly expect to win a lot more seats in the House, and a few more in the Senate.